80th Annual Midwest Political Science Association Conference
London School of Economics
Note: Topic models include all quote tweets (143,171) of Trump’s LIBERATE tweets. A detailed description of text pre-processing and modeling methods are available in Appendix A.
Note: Google Trends data are normalized and scaled according to time period and geography in order to represent the relative popularity of a search term on a range between 0 and 100 (Google 2020).
Table 1: Cummulative estimates: Mobility
| Full State | Democratic Counties | Republican Counties | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treatment | 2.284* | 1.005 | 2.706** |
| (0.906) | (0.631) | (0.854) | |
| Obs. | 29,064 | 6,132 | 22,932 |
| R2 | 0.764 | 0.825 | 0.714 |
| Full State | Democratic Counties | Republican Counties |
|---|---|---|
| -1.128* | -0.660 | -1.336** |
| (0.502) | (0.438) | (0.476) |
| 29,064 | 6,132 | 22,932 |
| 0.883 | 0.904 | 0.869 |
Note : + p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
Estimates are from two-way fixed effects models with county and time fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered by state and time. See Appendix D in paper for full results.
Note: Matrix completion estimates and 95% confidence intervals. Estimates for the effect of Trump’s calls for Liberation on Mobility in Republican counties while using only Republican counties elsewhere as the control group.
Note: Matrix Completion Estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals. Arrests for Disorderly conduct; Assault (Aggravated and Simple); Destruction/Damage/Vandalism of Property.